ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
AST SpaceMobile Inc is a satellite designer and manufacturer. The company is building the global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on extensive IP and patent portfolio. AST is on a mission to eliminate the connectivity gaps faced by mobile subscribers and finally bring broadband to the billions who remain unconnected.
Investment Thesis
AST SpaceMobile has created a new industry, Satellite D2C, which provides broadband internet directly to everyday smartphones. Their patented technology allows them to deploy extremely large communication satellites into LEO that operate identically to traditional cell towers. Through partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, and the US Government, they will commercialize their technology through pre packaged data plans, day passes, and wholesaling data for IOT and other non communication use cases.
Bear Case
Launching constellations are costly and most existing satellite constellations in the past have failed and went through bankruptcy (Iridium, Echostar, Dish, etc). In addition there is increasing competition from legacy satellite constellations such as Starlink, Lynk, Globalstar/Apple, Echostar, Viasat and more. The global TAM for D2C services might be less than expected which will make maintaining the constellation uneconomical. ASTS needs 45 satellites for continuous global coverage, and 243 for a completed constellation.
Kook Weekly 4/13
Kook Weekly Spaces 3/30
Kooks Weekly Spaces Mar 24
BB2 (FM1) Design Discussion
Discuss the design changes for BB2 and implications
Premiered 2025-03-23 • Added 2025-03-23March 16 Weekly Spaces
Q4 & 2025 Discussion with Kook
Vodafone European JV Discussion
March 2nd Weekly Spaces
Implication of 43mn SDA award
TheKookReport Feb 8 Weekly Spaces
Convertible Debt Discussion
Initial Thoughts on the Ligado Spectrum Deal
Discussion about ASTS Investment with @pirnhacapital
Discussion about Q3 2024
Risks
Active Risks
There is a risk that ASTS will not be able to manufacture enough satellites to meet their 2025/2026 commercialization timeline
ASTS currently has 2 factories building BB2 satellites. These factories can manufacture 6 sats/month at peak operations. They estimate they will be able to reach the 6 sats/month cadence by end of Q2. They have materials for 53 satellites already sourced and collectedASTS's technology will not scale
There is speculation that the technology performs well with 1 phone at a time but there is a risk it will not scaleThere will not be enough customers to sustain development of the constellation
Currently ASTS has about 700mn subscribers through their partnerships. There is an estimate that 30% of customers will pay for a premium service that provides 100% coverage everywhere.Block 2 Design Flaws
There is a risk that the first block 2 satellites will not unfold and operate correctlyBlock 2 Launch Risk
There is a risk that the block 2 satellites will not be launched successfully into orbitDerisked Items
Starlink will dominate the D2C market
ASTS secured partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, 2Degrees in NZ, and have 45 MOUs with MNOs around the world. There is healthy demand in ASTS's service even with the existence of StarlinkASTS will not have enough money to become cash flow positive
ASTS raised an additional 400M in convertible debt that puts their cash position at 1BFCC will not grant approval for ASTS to begin commercial operations
FCC Currently granted special testing authority (STA) for ASTS satellites.Technology Doesn't Work
https://about.att.com/story/2025/ast-spacemobile-video-call.html
AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone demonstrated a video call working via the Satellite network.Upcoming Catalysts
Past Catalysts
Related Events
$ASTS: 🚨B RILEY UPGRADES AST SPACEMOBILE PRICE TARGET TO $60 FROM $44, REITERATES BUY RATING When r
2025-08-01$ASTS: 🚨B RILEY UPGRADES AST SPACEMOBILE PRICE TARGET TO $60 FROM $44, REITERATES BUY RATING
When research analysts upgrade stocks right before quarterly updates (8/11), they feel confident positive news is coming... https://t.co/KcdaYpQP6M
$ASTS: ASTS is the #3 holding behind $VZ and $T for Fidelity Select Telecom, a smaller $285M AUM fun
2025-07-31$ASTS: ASTS is the #3 holding behind $VZ and $T for Fidelity Select Telecom, a smaller $285M AUM fund.
As we get Q2 institutional ownership updates by 8/15, it'll be interesting to see if other Fidelity funds pick up shares in ASTS. As an organization, Fidelity can buy up to 14.9% of a company's outstanding shares.
$ASTS: 🚨JAPANESE MNO RAKUTEN HINTS THAT AST SPACEMOBILE SERVICE COULD BE LAUNCHED EARLIER THAN LATE
2025-07-31$ASTS: 🚨JAPANESE MNO RAKUTEN HINTS THAT AST SPACEMOBILE SERVICE COULD BE LAUNCHED EARLIER THAN LATE 2026
"Rakuten's Saikyo Satellite Service" to be launched ahead of schedule, says CEO Yazawa - Mobile Watch
Rakuten Mobile President Shunsuke Yazawa mentioned the possibility of bringing forward the launch date of the "Rakuten Saikyo Satellite Service," which is scheduled to be launched at the end of 2026.
He spoke at the company's "Rakuten AI Optimism" conference on the 31st. Regarding Rakuten's satellite service, Yazawa said, "We are currently working hard within the company to bring the launch a little earlier. We would like to provide the service to Rakuten Mobile users early next year."
Rakuten Saikyo Satellite Service is a direct communication service between smartphones and satellites that Rakuten Mobile plans to offer. It utilizes communications satellites from the US company AST SpaceMobile, and at a press conference in April, it was revealed that they had successfully conducted video calls via satellite communication. It was initially scheduled to be available in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Article: https://t.co/yiMDMM2sxw
$ASTS:🚨AST SPACEMOBILE FILES FCC REPORT OF SUCCESSFUL BROADBAND SERVICE TESTING WITH AT&T AND VERIZO
2025-07-25$ASTS:🚨AST SPACEMOBILE FILES FCC REPORT OF SUCCESSFUL BROADBAND SERVICE TESTING WITH AT&T AND VERIZON
+ 90-day initial testing utilizing five Block-1 BlueBird satellites over 700MHz and 800Mhz spectrum successfully demonstrated voice calls, text messaging, video conferencing and broadband data downloads to everyday smartphones
+ AST SpaceMobile has not received any complaints of harmful interference from tests
1/ $ASTS: $575M Convert Offering +Initial 20% Conversion Premium: $72.07 +Capped Call Raises Premium
2025-07-251/ $ASTS: $575M Convert Offering
+Initial 20% Conversion Premium: $72.07
+Capped Call Raises Premium 100%: $120.12
+2.375% Coupon
+Maturity 5 Years
+$560M Net Proceeds
+$47M to Purchase Capped Call
Convert + Capped Call = 4.79M underlying shares or 1.4% dilution