ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
AST SpaceMobile Inc is a satellite designer and manufacturer. The company is building the global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on extensive IP and patent portfolio. AST is on a mission to eliminate the connectivity gaps faced by mobile subscribers and finally bring broadband to the billions who remain unconnected.
Investment Thesis
AST SpaceMobile has created a new industry, Satellite D2C, which provides broadband internet directly to everyday smartphones. Their patented technology allows them to deploy extremely large communication satellites into LEO that operate identically to traditional cell towers. Through partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, and the US Government, they will commercialize their technology through pre packaged data plans, day passes, and wholesaling data for IOT and other non communication use cases.
Bear Case
Launching constellations are costly and most existing satellite constellations in the past have failed and went through bankruptcy (Iridium, Echostar, Dish, etc). In addition there is increasing competition from legacy satellite constellations such as Starlink, Lynk, Globalstar/Apple, Echostar, Viasat and more. The global TAM for D2C services might be less than expected which will make maintaining the constellation uneconomical. ASTS needs 45 satellites for continuous global coverage, and 243 for a completed constellation.
Kook Weekly 4/13
Kook Weekly Spaces 3/30
Kooks Weekly Spaces Mar 24
BB2 (FM1) Design Discussion
Discuss the design changes for BB2 and implications
Premiered 2025-03-23 • Added 2025-03-23March 16 Weekly Spaces
Q4 & 2025 Discussion with Kook
Vodafone European JV Discussion
March 2nd Weekly Spaces
Implication of 43mn SDA award
TheKookReport Feb 8 Weekly Spaces
Convertible Debt Discussion
Initial Thoughts on the Ligado Spectrum Deal
Discussion about ASTS Investment with @pirnhacapital
Discussion about Q3 2024
Risks
Active Risks
There is a risk that ASTS will not be able to manufacture enough satellites to meet their 2025/2026 commercialization timeline
ASTS currently has 2 factories building BB2 satellites. These factories can manufacture 6 sats/month at peak operations. They estimate they will be able to reach the 6 sats/month cadence by end of Q2. They have materials for 53 satellites already sourced and collectedASTS's technology will not scale
There is speculation that the technology performs well with 1 phone at a time but there is a risk it will not scaleThere will not be enough customers to sustain development of the constellation
Currently ASTS has about 700mn subscribers through their partnerships. There is an estimate that 30% of customers will pay for a premium service that provides 100% coverage everywhere.Block 2 Design Flaws
There is a risk that the first block 2 satellites will not unfold and operate correctlyBlock 2 Launch Risk
There is a risk that the block 2 satellites will not be launched successfully into orbitDerisked Items
Starlink will dominate the D2C market
ASTS secured partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, 2Degrees in NZ, and have 45 MOUs with MNOs around the world. There is healthy demand in ASTS's service even with the existence of StarlinkASTS will not have enough money to become cash flow positive
ASTS raised an additional 400M in convertible debt that puts their cash position at 1BFCC will not grant approval for ASTS to begin commercial operations
FCC Currently granted special testing authority (STA) for ASTS satellites.Technology Doesn't Work
https://about.att.com/story/2025/ast-spacemobile-video-call.html
AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone demonstrated a video call working via the Satellite network.Upcoming Catalysts
Past Catalysts
Related Events
Duetsche Bank Updated Research
2025-05-14ASTS Hiring Spree reached 553 Employees
2025-05-14ASTS Response to SpaceX Informal Objections
2025-05-13$ASTS: FM-1 filing update, AST files response to SpaceX. Calls complaints baseless and anti-competitive
https://apps.fcc.gov/els/GetAtt.html?id=375766&x=
ASTS Q1 Earnings Report
2025-05-12$ASTS AST SpaceMobile’s Q1 2025 business update and financial results:
- Five satellite launches scheduled in next 6–9 months; aim for launches every 1–2 months through 2025–2026.
- First Block 2 BlueBird satellite to launch July 2025; manufacturing cadence of 6 satellites/month targeted by Q3.
- Projected $50M–$75M in revenue for 2H 2025.
- Key partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Rakuten using premium low-band spectrum.
- Ongoing successful live demonstrations of broadband video calls via satellite using unmodified smartphones.
- $43M Space Development Agency contract ramping up.
- New DIU contract worth up to $20M for multi-agency connectivity (land, sea, air).
- Gateway equipment bookings of $13.6M in Q1; $10M per quarter expected going forward.
- Key approvals in progress; secured temporary FCC authority for FirstNet and agreements with NSF.
- Positioned for full U.S. and European regulatory clearance.
- Signed deals for long-term access to 45 MHz of premium mid-band spectrum.
- $874.5M in cash and equivalents as of Q1 2025.
- In early phases for over $500M in potential non-dilutive capital from EXIM and IFC.