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ASTS

AST SpaceMobile

Communications Space

AST SpaceMobile Inc is a satellite designer and manufacturer. The company is building the global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on extensive IP and patent portfolio. AST is on a mission to eliminate the connectivity gaps faced by mobile subscribers and finally bring broadband to the billions who remain unconnected.

Investment Thesis

AST SpaceMobile has created a new industry, Satellite D2C, which provides broadband internet directly to everyday smartphones. Their patented technology allows them to deploy extremely large communication satellites into LEO that operate identically to traditional cell towers. Through partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, and the US Government, they will commercialize their technology through pre packaged data plans, day passes, and wholesaling data for IOT and other non communication use cases.

Bear Case

Launching constellations are costly and most existing satellite constellations in the past have failed and went through bankruptcy (Iridium, Echostar, Dish, etc). In addition there is increasing competition from legacy satellite constellations such as Starlink, Lynk, Globalstar/Apple, Echostar, Viasat and more. The global TAM for D2C services might be less than expected which will make maintaining the constellation uneconomical. ASTS needs 45 satellites for continuous global coverage, and 243 for a completed constellation.

Kook Weekly 4/13
discussion @TheKookReport
Premiered 2025-04-13 • Added 2025-04-14
Kook Weekly Spaces 3/30
discussion @TheKookReport
Premiered 2025-03-30 • Added 2025-03-31
Kooks Weekly Spaces Mar 24
discussion @thekookreport
Premiered 2025-03-24 • Added 2025-03-24
BB2 (FM1) Design Discussion
discussion @Anpanman

Discuss the design changes for BB2 and implications

Premiered 2025-03-23 • Added 2025-03-23
March 16 Weekly Spaces
discussion @TheKookReport
Premiered 2025-03-16 • Added 2025-03-17
Q4 & 2025 Discussion with Kook
discussion @spacanpanman
Premiered 2025-03-04 • Added 2025-03-16
Vodafone European JV Discussion
discussion @spacanpanman
Premiered 2025-03-03 • Added 2025-03-16
March 2nd Weekly Spaces
discussion @TheKookReport
Premiered 2025-03-02 • Added 2025-03-16
Implication of 43mn SDA award
analysis @spacanpanman
Premiered 2025-02-26 • Added 2025-03-16
TheKookReport Feb 8 Weekly Spaces
discussion @TheKookReport
Premiered 2025-02-08 • Added 2025-03-16
Convertible Debt Discussion
discussion @spacanpanman
Premiered 2025-01-22 • Added 2025-03-16
Initial Thoughts on the Ligado Spectrum Deal
discussion @spacanpanman
Premiered 2025-01-08 • Added 2025-03-16
Discussion about ASTS Investment with @pirnhacapital
discussion @spacanpanman
Premiered 2024-12-20 • Added 2025-03-16
Discussion about Q3 2024
discussion @spacanpanman
Premiered 2024-11-15 • Added 2025-03-16

Risks

Active Risks

Operational

There is a risk that ASTS will not be able to manufacture enough satellites to meet their 2025/2026 commercialization timeline

ASTS currently has 2 factories building BB2 satellites. These factories can manufacture 6 sats/month at peak operations. They estimate they will be able to reach the 6 sats/month cadence by end of Q2. They have materials for 53 satellites already sourced and collected
Added 2025-03-15
Technology

ASTS's technology will not scale

There is speculation that the technology performs well with 1 phone at a time but there is a risk it will not scale
Added 2025-03-15
Market

There will not be enough customers to sustain development of the constellation

Currently ASTS has about 700mn subscribers through their partnerships. There is an estimate that 30% of customers will pay for a premium service that provides 100% coverage everywhere.
Added 2025-03-15
Technology

Block 2 Design Flaws

There is a risk that the first block 2 satellites will not unfold and operate correctly
Added 2025-03-15
Operational

Block 2 Launch Risk

There is a risk that the block 2 satellites will not be launched successfully into orbit
Added 2025-03-15

Derisked Items

Market

Starlink will dominate the D2C market

None

ASTS secured partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, 2Degrees in NZ, and have 45 MOUs with MNOs around the world. There is healthy demand in ASTS's service even with the existence of Starlink
Derisked 2025-03-15
Financial Deprecated

ASTS will not have enough money to become cash flow positive

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250122193647/en/AST-SpaceMobile-Announces-Pricing-of-Private-Offering-of-%24400.0-Million-of-Convertible-Senior-Notes-Due-2032

ASTS raised an additional 400M in convertible debt that puts their cash position at 1B
Derisked 2025-03-15
Legal/Regulatory

FCC will not grant approval for ASTS to begin commercial operations

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250130886840/en/AST-SpaceMobile-Announces-FCC-Grant-Of-Special-Temporary-Authority-STA-In-the-United-States-with-Strategic-Partners-ATT-And-Verizon

FCC Currently granted special testing authority (STA) for ASTS satellites.
Derisked 2025-03-15
Technology Deprecated

Technology Doesn't Work

https://about.att.com/story/2025/ast-spacemobile-video-call.html

AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone demonstrated a video call working via the Satellite network.
Derisked 2025-03-15

Upcoming Catalysts

Verizon DA
Definite 2025-04-30
ASTS Beta Testing with AT&T, Verizon, Rakuten, Vodafone
Very Likely 2025-04-30
ASTS gets Golden Dome
Probable 2025-06-01
First BB2 Launch
Very Likely 2025-06-30
ASTS Wins Golden Dome Contract
Very Likely 2025-09-01
EXIM Funding of up to 500M
Very Likely 2025-09-30
ASTS announces investment from FirstNet
Very Likely 2025-10-01
5G Fund Grant
Probable 2025-11-01

Past Catalysts

BAML coverage initiation
Happened Very Likely 2025-06-01
Full SCS Commercialization Application
Happened Very Likely 2025-05-31
BB2 First Satellite Completion
Happened Very Likely 2025-04-30
Ligado Spectrum Deal Definitive Agreement
Happened Very Likely 2025-04-15
FirstNet DA or Spectrum Consent
Happened Definite 2025-04-13

Related Events

Today, President

scottwisniews

went live on Bloomberg Businessweek to discuss our purpose-built approach to deliver full broadband directly to standard smartphones.

"We depend on connectivity so much, and it's very important that the phone just works, whether it's for convenience, peace of mind, or emergencies. There's only one way to get broadband capabilities from space and that's with a big satellite. And we have the biggest."

With the largest commercial satellites in low Earth orbit, over 50 mobile operator partnerships worldwide, and a comprehensive spectrum strategy that combines our own spectrum and partner spectrum, we are rapidly building a future where everyone, everywhere, has access to strong, reliable broadband connectivity from space.

Watch it here

http://

bloomberg.com/news/videos/20

25-10-02/ast-spacemobile-to-launch-service-with-at-t-verizon-video



#ASTSpaceMobile #5G #BroadbandFromSpace #Bloomberg #ConnectingtheUnconnected

AST SpaceMobile CEO Discusses Broadband from Space on Bloomberg

Another day, another successful broadband connection from space! Together with our strategic partner

Bell

, we have achieved Canada’s first-ever space-based 4G VoLTE voice call, broadband data connection, and video streaming using everyday smartphones

With rollout planned for 2026, the successful demonstration in New Brunswick brings us closer to delivering reliable, high-speed mobile broadband for Canadians everywhere, even in the hardest-to-reach areas

https://

newswire.ca/news-releases/

bell-and-ast-spacemobile-complete-canada-s-first-successful-space-based-direct-to-cell-volte-voice-call-broadband-data-and-video-streaming-833536761.html



#ASTSpaceMobile #DirecttoCell #Bell #ConnectingtheUnconnected

AST SpaceMobile & Bell Achieve Canada's First Space-Based 4G Connection

BlueBird 6 has completed final assembly and testing and is ready for flight! On October 12, it will head to India aboard an Antonov large cargo plane

We are officially kicking off our next-gen launch campaign:

• BlueBird 7 is expected to ship to the Cape Canaveral launch site in October

• BlueBirds 8-16 are in various stages of production, with launches planned every 1-2 months on average during 2025 and 2026

• On track to complete 40 phased arrays by early 2026, bringing us to BlueBird 46

• Expecting 45-60 satellites in orbit by year-end 2026

We have partnered with 50+ mobile network operators serving nearly 3 billion subscribers, supported by a flexible spectrum strategy blending our own licensed spectrum with partner spectrum. These BlueBirds will be the largest commercial satellites ever deployed in LEO – each featuring a 2,400 sq ft phased array with true direct-to-cell broadband, capable of up to 10,000 MHz of processing bandwidth and peak speeds of 120 Mbps per cell #5G

#ASTSpaceMobile #BlueBird6 #NextGenBlueBird #BroadbandFromSpace #ConnectingtheUnconnected

AST SpaceMobile: BlueBird 6 Ready for Flight, Launch Campaign Underway

$ASTS is building fancy cell towers in space. People never believed you could do that.

$ASTS is building fancy cell towers in space.

BUILDING SATELLITES: County commissioners without discussion approved $193,000 in incentive funding for AST SpaceMobile to set up a 30,000-square-foot plant in Homestead to employ 60 workers to build satellites for its space-based cellular broadband network. Work on the plant is to begin in October. The incentives are based on an average salary of $89,583. Capital investment in the leased plant is to be $10.8 million. The Midland, TX, company designs, manufactures and operates satellites and plans to ramp up its manufacture, growing from the present two per month to a target of six a month. AST launches satellites from Cape Canaveral as its “space technology aims to provide uninterrupted coverage across the globe” in its AST SpaceMobile Network, the company says. AST looks to create the “only space-based cellular broadband network.”

https://

miamitodaynews.com/2025/09/10/fyi

-miami-september-11-2025/



#MiamiTodayNews #ASTSpaceMobile #SpaceTechnology #SpaceIndustry #CellularNetwork #MiamiToday

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