ASTS
AST SpaceMobile
AST SpaceMobile Inc is a satellite designer and manufacturer. The company is building the global cellular broadband network in space to operate directly with standard, unmodified mobile devices based on extensive IP and patent portfolio. AST is on a mission to eliminate the connectivity gaps faced by mobile subscribers and finally bring broadband to the billions who remain unconnected.
Investment Thesis
AST SpaceMobile has created a new industry, Satellite D2C, which provides broadband internet directly to everyday smartphones. Their patented technology allows them to deploy extremely large communication satellites into LEO that operate identically to traditional cell towers. Through partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, and the US Government, they will commercialize their technology through pre packaged data plans, day passes, and wholesaling data for IOT and other non communication use cases.
Bear Case
Launching constellations are costly and most existing satellite constellations in the past have failed and went through bankruptcy (Iridium, Echostar, Dish, etc). In addition there is increasing competition from legacy satellite constellations such as Starlink, Lynk, Globalstar/Apple, Echostar, Viasat and more. The global TAM for D2C services might be less than expected which will make maintaining the constellation uneconomical. ASTS needs 45 satellites for continuous global coverage, and 243 for a completed constellation.
Kook Weekly 4/13
Kook Weekly Spaces 3/30
Kooks Weekly Spaces Mar 24
BB2 (FM1) Design Discussion
Discuss the design changes for BB2 and implications
Premiered 2025-03-23 • Added 2025-03-23March 16 Weekly Spaces
Q4 & 2025 Discussion with Kook
Vodafone European JV Discussion
March 2nd Weekly Spaces
Implication of 43mn SDA award
TheKookReport Feb 8 Weekly Spaces
Convertible Debt Discussion
Initial Thoughts on the Ligado Spectrum Deal
Discussion about ASTS Investment with @pirnhacapital
Discussion about Q3 2024
Risks
Active Risks
There is a risk that ASTS will not be able to manufacture enough satellites to meet their 2025/2026 commercialization timeline
ASTS currently has 2 factories building BB2 satellites. These factories can manufacture 6 sats/month at peak operations. They estimate they will be able to reach the 6 sats/month cadence by end of Q2. They have materials for 53 satellites already sourced and collectedASTS's technology will not scale
There is speculation that the technology performs well with 1 phone at a time but there is a risk it will not scaleThere will not be enough customers to sustain development of the constellation
Currently ASTS has about 700mn subscribers through their partnerships. There is an estimate that 30% of customers will pay for a premium service that provides 100% coverage everywhere.Block 2 Design Flaws
There is a risk that the first block 2 satellites will not unfold and operate correctlyBlock 2 Launch Risk
There is a risk that the block 2 satellites will not be launched successfully into orbitDerisked Items
Starlink will dominate the D2C market
ASTS secured partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, 2Degrees in NZ, and have 45 MOUs with MNOs around the world. There is healthy demand in ASTS's service even with the existence of StarlinkASTS will not have enough money to become cash flow positive
ASTS raised an additional 400M in convertible debt that puts their cash position at 1BFCC will not grant approval for ASTS to begin commercial operations
FCC Currently granted special testing authority (STA) for ASTS satellites.Technology Doesn't Work
https://about.att.com/story/2025/ast-spacemobile-video-call.html
AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone demonstrated a video call working via the Satellite network.Upcoming Catalysts
Past Catalysts
Related Events
AST SpaceMobile Announces Definitive Commercial Agreement with Verizon to Support Space-Based Cellular Broadband Across the Continental United States
https://
businesswire.com/news/home/2025
1008175159/en/AST-SpaceMobile-Announces-Definitive-Commercial-Agreement-with-Verizon-to-Support-Space-Based-Cellular-Broadband-Across-the-Continental-United-States
…
$ASTS $VZ: It seems like Verizon knows what they own
A crystal-clear Voice over LTE (VoLTE) call was made from a smartphone on Verizon's network in Texas, connecting via an AST SpaceMobile satellite to another Verizon smartphone in New Jersey.
"This partnership with AST SpaceMobile is a good step forward in our mission to build a seamlessly connected world. We are not just filling in the map; we are creating a new paradigm of connectivity that will unlock the full potential of the digital age,” - Srini Kalapala, Senior Vice President of Technology and Product Development at Verizon.
https://
businesswire.com/news/home/2025
1008175159/en/AST-SpaceMobile-Announces-Definitive-Commercial-Agreement-with-Verizon-to-Support-Space-Based-Cellular-Broadband-Across-the-Continental-United-States
…
$ASTS: Verizon deal 'a significant positive' for AST SpaceMobile, says William Blair
After AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) announced that Verizon (VZ) has joined AT&T (T) with a definitive agreement to use AST's network for space-based cellular service, William Blair analyst Louis DiPalma called the competitive win over SpaceX's Starlink "a significant positive" for AST relative to the scenario of Verizon defecting to Starlink.
While noting that Starlink was likely aggressive in pursuing Verizon, which may have negatively impacted the terms negotiated, and acknowledging that it is still possible that AT&T and Verizon multisource their satellite partners, the firm argues that dual-sourcing would increase complexity.
We’ve launched Europe’s first integrated LEO satellite & mobile broadband research hub!
In partnership with
Meta
,
AST_SpaceMobile
and
InfoUMA
, this new hub will empower customers and drive innovation and connectivity.
Discover more here:
https://
vodafone.com/news/technolog
y/vodafone-ast-space-mobile-and-the-university-of-malaga-open-the-doors-to-europe-s-first-space-and-land-based-network-lab
…
Today, President
scottwisniews
went live on Bloomberg Businessweek to discuss our purpose-built approach to deliver full broadband directly to standard smartphones.
"We depend on connectivity so much, and it's very important that the phone just works, whether it's for convenience, peace of mind, or emergencies. There's only one way to get broadband capabilities from space and that's with a big satellite. And we have the biggest."
With the largest commercial satellites in low Earth orbit, over 50 mobile operator partnerships worldwide, and a comprehensive spectrum strategy that combines our own spectrum and partner spectrum, we are rapidly building a future where everyone, everywhere, has access to strong, reliable broadband connectivity from space.
Watch it here
http://
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20
25-10-02/ast-spacemobile-to-launch-service-with-at-t-verizon-video
…
#ASTSpaceMobile #5G #BroadbandFromSpace #Bloomberg #ConnectingtheUnconnected
